Mathshammer Week - Part 2 - Crushing Claws.

So I got slightly distracted by my new Imperial Guard list idea, but I suppose I better finish off posting some of the Tyranid Mathshammer I threatened you with earlier in the week ;-)

So Crushing Claws cost 25 points and grant you an extra D3 attacks from your Carnifex at an Initiative of 1.

As a Carnifex is cursed with WS 3 it can occasionally have issues doing enough damage to a unit to avoid being tarpitted. With 4 attacks base that's only an average of 2 hits per assault phase which isn't going to chew through even a small unit particularly quickly. If that target unit has an invulnerable save of some description then the problem is exaggerated even more.

This problem is somewhat mitigated by it's 2 sets of Scything Talons which grant it a re-roll to hit in assault. However, this bonus is reduced to re-rolling 1's to hit if we only have a single set.

So the question is...do the extra D3 attacks granted by Crushing Claws make up for the reduced re-rolls to hit?

Often averages don't tell us the whole story. The average number of extra attacks is going to be 2, however there is always the potential of either 1 or 3 so we better look at the numbers for all the possibilities.

Lets take a completely un-upgraded Carnifex. The Characteristics we're interested in are WS 3, S9 and 2 sets of Scything Talons.

We'll take the worst case first and let it be charged and presume the charging unit doesn't kill it before it gets a chance to hit back * and that the target unit has no invulnerable saves.

* It's death is a very real possibility by the way...A WS3, T6, 4W and a 3+ armour save MC can be killed by a number of dedicated Assault units.

Charged Carnifex c/w 2 sets of Scything Talons.

4 attacks, 2 hits (+1 from the reroll) so 3 hits in total, 2.5 Dead whatevers.

Charged Carnifex c/w 1 set of Scything Talons + Crushing Claws.

A re-roll on 1's gives us a 0.167 chance of getting a re-roll per attack reduced by 50% to 0.084 (we've still got to hit with it the second time around and for the most part that will be on 4's)

+1 Attacks : 5 attacks, 2.5 hit (+0.42 from re-rolls), 2.92 hits, 2.43 dead.

+2 Attacks : 6 attacks, 3 Hit (+0.5 from re-rolls), 3.5 Hits, 2.92 dead.

+3 Attacks : 7 attacks, 3.5 Hit (+0.58 from re-rolls), 4.08 Hits, 3.4 dead.

So rounding to the nearest whole number our Crushing Claws made Fuck all difference. Even taking the fractions into account the best case scenario of 3 extra attacks didn't account for a whole extra model dead.

Maybe charging will turn out better?

Charging Carnifex c/w 2 sets of Scything Talons.

5 attacks, 2.5 hits (+1.25 from the reroll) so 3.75 hits in total, 3.125 Dead whatevers.

Charging Carnifex c/w 1 set of Scything Talons + Crushing Claws.

A re-roll on 1's gives us a 0.167 chance of getting a re-roll per attack reduced by 50% to 0.084 (we've still got to hit with it the second time around and for the most part that will be on 4's)

+1 Attacks : 6 attacks, 3 Hit (+0.5 from re-rolls), 3.5 Hits, 2.92 dead.

+2 Attacks : 7 attacks, 3.5 Hit (+0.58 from re-rolls), 4.08 Hits, 3.4 dead.

+3 Attacks : 8 attacks, 4 Hit (+0.67 from re-rolls), 4.67 Hits, 3.89 dead.

So rounding to the nearest whole number only our best case scenario (+3 attacks) gives us any benefit and when taking the fractions into account still doesn't add up to a whole extra model dead.

As one of the most expensive upgrades for the Carnifex (only a Heavy Venom Cannon or Regeneration clock-in at the same points) I'd really expect a more significant advantage from this biomorph.

Another factor that needs to be noted is that even with the 'Living Battering Ram' rule making you I3 on the charge, Crushing Claw attacks are still at an initiative of 1 so there's a chance that your 'extra' attacks will be useless if your opponent can kill you before that initiative step.

Some of you may still be under the impression that the Carnifex is unlikely to die in assault before it gets a chance to attack. However think about it this way, If someone is actually attacking your Carnifex there is always the possibility that they're either tying it up because they have the numbers (Orks, Imperial Guard) and don't care if they kill it or they have a unit that they think can take it out...

Oh and in case you missed my conclusion when I wandered of the point a little...Crushing claws aren't worth taking, but unfortunately (imo) neither is the Carnifex that can take them...that subject however needs a blog post all of it's own...